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In reaction to more positive results of the Slovak economy in the fourth quarter of 2011 and improved expectations of growth in Eurozone in 1H12A, IFP has prepared a new macroeconomic “flash” forecast for 2012. The main positive driver has been Slovak exports, which, despite the decline of the economies of our two biggest trading partners, have recorded significant growth in Q4 2011. The latest Eurozone forecast indicates the possibility that its economy will not decline in 2012 on QoQ basis. Based on these updates, IFP has revised its forecast of the growth of the Slovak economy for 2012 upwards from 1.1% to 2.3%. At the same time, the high degree of uncertainty increases the estimate interval. The current estimate is in the range of 1.9% - 2.6%, while the most probable scenario sees growth at 2.3%. Faster economic growth in 2012 will have only minimal impact on the public balance, after taking into account weaker than expected employment and lower collection estimates of exice taxes.
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